The difficulty and unpopularity of ‘popular government’ in Manipur

Recent reports suggest that efforts are underway to revive a popular government in Manipur. With Prime Minster Narendra Modi expected to visit the conflict-ridden state later this month, speculation is mounting that he may perform what some have called the “final rites” for the resurrection of the Manipur Assembly-formally reinstating an elected government after months of political limbo. Will Modi-Shah duo be able to pull this off? Is a question lurking in many minds.

Necessity, Yet Unpopular and Difficult

At this juncture, popular government though far from desirable for the Kuki-Zo, it appears to be a practical necessity for the central government and for the Meitei populace for the restoration of normalcy. As President’s Rule is by design a temporary measure and cannot substitute for democratic governance, nor is it good for the long-terms needs of the people. But the road to popular government is riddled with hurdles.

However, the restoration of a popular government in Manipur was anticipated, particularly because the Manipur Legislative Assembly was not dissolved when President’s Rule was imposed on February 13, 2025. Instead, it was placed under suspended animation, leaving open the possibility for reviving the Assembly once the situation stabilized and conditions became conducive for governance. However, the opposition continues to demand fresh elections, which the BJP is unlikely to concede for strategic reasons. Given the catastrophic report card of the state BJP regime, and the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where both seats were won by Congress candidates, Bimol Akoijam and Alfred Arthur, fresh election is out of the question. on the other hand, reviving the Assembly offers the BJP a two-year window to repair its image and improves its chances in the next election.

The idea of a ‘popular government’ is deeply unpopular in Manipur. Hence, the path to restoration in a fractured environment will be an arduous task if not Sisyphean. As the state continues to grapple with the deep wounds of the conflict, trust in democratic institutions, leaders, and shared political future remains all-time low. For the Modi-Shah duo, restoring popular government will require more than numerical arithmetic or backroom negotiations. It remains to be seen if the central leadership can rise to overcome this complex challenge.

Some Red Flags for the Kuki-Zo

The idea of forming a popular government is quite unpopular among the Kuki-Zo. The Kuki Inpi Manipur (KIM), the apex body of the Kuki community, has recently issued a directive prohibiting the Kuki-Zo MLAs from taking parts in efforts to form a new popular government in the state of Manipur. For them, a meaningful political solution and justice must precede any discussion on governance. The current push to restore the Assembly without any solution is seen as trivialising their immense suffering and displacement.

Their opposition also stems from their deep mistrust in Biren Singh’s leadership. His leadership before, during and after the conflict is widely viewed as partisan and complicit. Now, him leading the effort to restore a popular government, and his possible return to power as the Chief Minister of Manipur is perceived as a recipe for another political catastrophe.

Though Biren Singh pose a grave danger to the political future of Manipur, it must be recognised that a democratic system is a collective enterprise sustained by myriad of institutions, norms, players, and public participation. Therefore, collective efforts of all stakeholders is necessary.

But at this juncture, Manipur public and civil society remains deeply polarised. There is a climate of fear, hostility, and mutual distrust. The Meitei and the Kuki increasingly perceive each other not merely as political rivals, but as existential threats, mortal enemies or the problematic other. Even social media and public discourse is filled with narratives of dehumanisation, vilifying and hatred. Anyone critical of their leader, society or promoting reconciliation is branded as ‘Judas’ or traitor of the community.

A stark example from the Meitei community is the Kangla Fort episode of January 2024, where the radical armed militia group Arambai Tenggol reportedly forced all Meitei MLAs, MPs to take oath to protect the integrity of the state. Dissenters were assaulted and threatened. Similarly, this strategy of intimidation is extended to civil society figures like Babloo Loitongbam a rights activists and Brinda Thanaojam a former police officer for allegedly accusing radical organisation like Meitei Leepun, Arambai Tenggol and the militarisation of Meitei society in fuelling the violence in Manipur. Both of their house was attacked by mob reportedly led by Meira Paibis in one instance.

Similar trends are seen within the Kuki-Zo community. Figures like Michael Lamjathang Haokip, the BJP spokesperson and Dr. Seilen Haokip, spokesperson of KNO residence was torched by angry mob for favouring ‘rapprochement with the Meitei’ and supporting lifting of blockade of NH-2 at Kangpokpi respectively. Such incidents have created an atmosphere of fear, silencing dissent, and forcing many to withdraw from public life, while those who remained engaged grow demoralized.

Finding a Way Forward

But it is unproductive to view every political development through an apocalyptic lens. Because politics is a game of possibility. History shows us that no conflict is beyond resolution. Many societies have endured and emerged from conflict far more severe than this, guided by bold leadership and wise political choice.

To navigate this crisis demands a cautious approach with political will and courage, wise political choice and also a bit of compromise from all stakeholders. The primary responsibility lies with the central government, the BJP, the leaders and the people of Manipur. They need to come up with a political framework, leaders, terms and condition acceptable to all stakeholders. However, certain conditions must be met:

First, before any step is taken toward forming a popular government, it is essential to ensure both political and procedural justice for the victims. Those responsible for the violence must be held accountable and brough to justice.

Second, a more nuanced and adaptive political strategy aimed at restoring public trust in the leaders, state institutions, institutional legitimacy and inter-community relationships must be restored.

Third, political guarantees bound by the principles of justice, structural reforms, leadership and political trajectory that signals a break from the past is needed.

Fourth, keep N. Biren Singh and his close associates from the centre of power or from key portfolios. This will be a difficult task given Singh standing within the party and popularity among the Meitei population. But, as the guardrails of democracy the central BJP leadership has to take this bold step.

Fifth, leaders from both sides of the divide must avoid taking decisions behind close doors. The people must be informed, consulted and convinced of any steps to be taken. Or else it can result in the outbreak of another phase of violence. There, any future action should be grounded in transparency, accountability and collective participation.

Lastly, the unwritten rules of the games or norms such as civility, mutual respect, dignity, and toleration must be upheld and actively cultivated not only within the institutions of the state but also across civil society. Because they are the unwritten foundational social contract that undergirds any plural democratic society. Without this collective recommitment, any attempt at restoring a popular government will remain a futile exercise.

Manipur is in urgent need of healing. The central government’s renewed interest in addressing the situation is, on the face of it, a welcome development, regardless of the motivation behind it. But any step towards restoration must be preceded by sense of Justice be it political or procedural. Without it, any attempt is merely a ticking time bomb that can detonate and reignite the crisis rather than providing a sustainable solution.

(Views expressed are personal)